January 1, 2026: New ship building programs remain behind schedule and over budget. That’s because American shipyards lack the capacity and skilled workforce to build the ships needed. The solution is to retire obsolete ships, modernize shipyards and adopt realistic shipbuilding efforts. Spending more money on shipbuilding won’t work if you don’t have the shipyards and skilled workers. The United States must adopt a program of shipyard modernization workforce recruiting and training. Implementing rational shipbuilding goals will mean fewer ships for a while. That won’t encourage China to attack as they realize that this new American program will put more ships in service on a sustained basis. Meanwhile a half dozen Virginia class SSNs could shut down most Chinese imports and exports.

There are also lessons to be learned from our allies. South Korea and Japan use a modular approach, with components of ships built in many different shipyards and land based facilities. These components are brought to shipyards and rapidly reassembled into new ships.

Then there are important lessons from the past. In the early 1990s, with the Cold War over, and the mighty Soviet fleet rapidly falling apart, only about 25 percent of American warships were at sea at any one time. Since September 11, 2001, there's been a lot more to do, and about half the fleet has been at sea at any one time. Most of this has to do with counter-terrorism operations, and support of operations in the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, and keeping an eye on China’s growing naval forces.

To make this possible, the navy changed the way it went to sea. Gone were the regular, clockwork, six month deployments of carrier and amphibious task forces. Now these units are deployed for shorter periods, giving the crews more time in port, and more reason to stay in the navy. Too many long deployments made sailors choose between the navy and family, and the navy usually lost out.

The U.S. Navy still spends more time at sea than any other, thus maintaining skills that are second to none. But that requires billions of dollars a year for fuel and spare parts, not to mention the months ships must spend getting major maintenance after years at sea. If the money doesn't keep coming for this, the U.S. Navy will end up like the Soviet fleet, rotting away from lack of maintenance and training.

Twenty years ago, the number of ships in the U.S. Navy hit a new low, with only 296 combat ships in the fleet. This was the lowest it has been since just before World War I, over 80 years ago. But the American fleet was still the largest and most powerful in the world. Since 1914, the average size of ships has gone up, crew size has gone down and combat power per ship has increased enormously. Towards the end of the Cold War, the navy was headed for a 600 warship fleet. But the end of the Cold War in 1991 saw the mighty Soviet Union fleet disappear as a combat force. This left America, and its allies, with uncontested control of the high seas. But the navy found itself worrying more about supporting the war on terror, and operating off coasts, not chasing down Russian nuclear subs on the high seas. To that end, the U.S. Navy sought to build a new class of smaller, coastal fighting ships, and unmanned drones to operate off carriers. The drones were particularly important, because they could fly long range bombing missions without wearing out human crews. Smart bombs allowed carriers to do a lot more damage with the same amount of bombs. This was a vital consideration for the navy, as they could only drop the bombs they had with them. New, more automated ships meant less strain on the smaller crews, and better living conditions. Even with new building programs, the navy doesn’t expect to get much larger than 310-360 ships in the next twenty years.