January 23, 2026: Russian oil exports account for 30 percent of government income. Western efforts to defeat or degrade these exports have largely failed. There are too many ways for Russia to circumvent the sanctions. Another problem with the sanctions is that India and China account for 90 percent of Russian oil exports. While most of that oil moved via ship, China has a pipeline from Russia for overland delivery of 15 percent of Russian oil. The rest arrives via sea-going tankers.

For years Russia has utilized a fleet of over 500 shadow tankers. These ships, largely operated by private contractors, move the oil to customers who are willing to risk getting caught and censured in order to get cheaper oil. Not a lot of these outlaw tankers are caught. To do so would require a major naval effort and the NATO countries backing the sanctions do not have enough ships or determination to try and shut down the shadow fleet.

Another advantage Russia has is the ability to offer high enough discounts to keep customers buying sanctioned oil. Dealing with the sanctions successfully has cost Russia revenue that went to discounts, bribes and operating expenses of its shadow fleet. In the end, the Russian oil still moves to customers, with Russia losing 10-15 percent of the income it received before the sanctions came along.