October 13, 2025: After the war with Israel and the United States, the Iranian government and people are reconsidering what they want and how they will achieve it. The swift and effective Israeli and American attacks on Iran, especially those targeting individuals in the Iranian military, government, and nuclear program, left many Iranians wondering if the time for fundamental change in Iran is now. This is more likely now because the Israeli/U.S. operation devastated and diminished Iranian military power.

Over the last few years, Iranians have become angrier and more outspoken about the wretched economy and brutal suppression of dissent by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Worse, IRGC officers have acquired a substantial portion of the economy, enriching themselves and their families. The rest of Iran remains mired in poverty. Public expressions of criticism or calls for economic relief are met with violent IRGC suppression of such heretical talk.

It gets worse. Iran has long been the Persian Gulf superpower. The name of the Gulf exemplifies that dominance. One thing all Iranians can agree on is that for thousands of years, Iran was often its own worst enemy. Internal squabbles weakened the mighty Persian Empire 2,500 years ago, allowing the Greeks, led by Alexander the Great, to do the impossible and conquer the Persian/Iranian Empire. A similar situation occurred 1,500 years ago when the Arabs, inspired by their new Islamic religion, conquered the Sassanid Persian Empire. At that time, the Iranians were engaged in a centuries-long conflict with the Byzantine Empire. It took several decades for the Persians to abandon their ancient Zoroastrian faith, and many pretended to accept Islam while secretly continuing to practice Zoroastrianism. Currently, only about 40 percent of Iranians consider themselves Muslims, with most adhering to other faiths, including the ancient Iranian Zoroastrianism.

Many Iranians believe Iran has not recovered from the Arab conquest and that Islam is more at fault than the Arabs. Many now believe that, without internal squabbling, Iran could have avoided the damage caused by the Greek, Arab, Mongol, and Western invasions. Moderates pay attention to history, while radicals do not. However, when radicals do examine the past closely, they often become moderates, which is how the moderates are gaining ground.

Another reason is demographics. The generation that lived through the 1979 revolution and the subsequent ruinous war with Iraq is no longer the majority. The current generation sees the religious dictatorship for what it is: a coup by Islamic radicals who were part of the movement that overthrew the Persian monarchy and used the subsequent Iraqi invasion as an excuse to replace the promised democracy with a religious dictatorship. Senior clerics and IRGC leaders know this is a threat because opinion polls have shown, for several years, that more Iranians are abandoning Islam, with many secretly adopting other religions or none at all. The clerics label this as blasphemy, a crime punishable by death if done openly.

The Iranian use of denial is not restricted to the current government but is a national survival trait that makes sense in many situations. Fewer Iranians are attending mosques or religious schools. If pressed by a local cleric, they plead poverty and the need to work more to feed their families. Local clerics understand there is much truth to this, and that Islam is losing believers for practical reasons. This is reported to senior clerics and eventually reaches the Council of Guardians. This group of elderly Shia clerics appears, on the surface, as wise and caring holy men. In reality, the Guardians preside over a corrupt and incompetent bureaucracy and senior clergy, and Iranians are taking to the streets to call them out on this.

Meanwhile, Iran is aligning with Turkey and Russia, two ancient enemies, to maintain a position of power in the Middle East. This region has long been contested and occupied by Turks and Iranians. It was a major achievement for Russia, which lost its own empire in 1991, to challenge the Ottoman Empire, which collapsed in the early 1920s, and the former Persian Empire. A century ago, the growing economic importance of oil began reshaping the Middle Eastern political landscape. The Ottomans lost access to oil, while the Iranians secured a minority share. Most of the oil is now controlled by Arabs, former subjects of the Ottomans and Persians. To protect their new wealth, the Arabs formed alliances with their biggest customers: the new superpowers in Europe, the United States, and now China. Despite this, Russia, Turkey, and Iran still aspire to be empire builders. This has led to an unstable and unpredictable partnership among the three former foes, but Russia still sees itself as the key player.

Meanwhile, Iranians continue to honor their Persian ancestors. In 2016, thousands of Iranians gathered in Pasargadae, 800 kilometers south of Tehran, to celebrate the birthday of Cyrus the Great, considered the founder of the Persian Empire 2,500 years ago. The religious dictatorship that has ruled Iran since the 1980s quietly tries to discourage this sort of thing without drawing much attention. This has proved increasingly difficult. This is a problem because this form of Iranian nationalism appeals to all Iranians to some degree, particularly to royalists and democrats who want to keep religion out of government.

The Greeks still honor Alexander the Great and want to commemorate the Battle of Gaugamela with a monument outside the Iraqi city of Mosul. The battle took place 2,340 years ago when Alexander defeated a Persian army, destroying the Persian Empire that stretched from modern-day Turkey to modern-day Pakistan. The Iraqis were enthusiastic about the idea, even though the defeated Persian army included many Arabs. For the Iraqis, the battle represents a major defeat for Iran. Although most Iraqis share the Shia form of Islam with Iran, Iranians are not Arabs but an Indo-European people related to Indians and Europeans. Iran has long menaced, invaded, and generally oppressed the Arabs, and it now threatens the Arab world again. Thus, anything that celebrates the defeat of Iranian power is something to be encouraged.